In May we did a quick roundup of industry analysts’ predictions for the Network Policy Control market. Fearless prognosticators that they are, the analysts took a shot at pegging a market growth rate for 2013. For convenience, I’ll repeat those predictions here:
|Analysts||2013 growth estimate|
|Frost and Sullivan Stratecast||~20%|
|Infonetics Research (DPI)||31%|
With half the year gone, how are the estimates holding up?
There are many vendors in our market, including some integrated network equipment providers that don’t separately report results for the Network Policy Control aspect of their business, so arriving at a true “market” growth rate is an imperfect science to be sure. However, the three main vendors who focus exclusively on best-of-breed Network Policy Control solutions (Sandvine, Allot and Procera) have all reported second quarter results, so those results can serve as a proxy. So far, it appears that the analysts have overshot. According to Azi Ronen’s Broadband Traffic Management blog (and verified by Sandvine’s calculations), “Total revenues for the 3 vendors during the first half of 2013 were $125.8M, compared to $116.3 in the same period of 2012 (+8.2%).” Only Sandvine has hit analysts’ average expected growth rate (26%) and as a result, has top market share in the period (39%).