Sandvine recently posted some high-level findings from our most recent Broadband Phenomena study.  When conducting a study like this, the sheer volume of data is almost overwhelming, and there are endless interesting observations that can be found by peering deeply.  Part of the challenge is to highlight points that are interesting to a broad global audience, new enough to grab attention, and simple enough to be conveyed in a few sentences.  This last point is particularly challenging given the complex and dynamic nature of the Internet and the technologies that enable the worldwide connectivity on which we’ve come to rely.

I’d like to take this space to expand on a few of our high-level findings beyond what was possible in a press release or summary document.

First, this year’s study showed not only that there is a global shift in subscriber behaviour towards favouring on-demand entertainment and interactive applications over the “download now and consume later” approach, but also that the network itself can significantly influence what applications and services are embraced by Internet subscribers.  We now see users relying on certain classes of application and exhibiting certain behavioural characteristics based upon what the network can deliver.  In mature Internet markets where broadband penetration is widespread and the rate of growth has slowed (North America and Asia-Pacific spring to mind) we see that subscribers use a great deal of interactive applications, from online gaming to voice- and video-conferencing, to on-demand video.  The networks in these regions are able to support the requirements of these types of applications.  There is also a bit of “chicken and egg” relationship at play – Internet users are more likely to favour on-demand video applications where localized versions are available (think of Hulu in the United States or BBC’s iPlayer in the UK).  Meanwhile, in regions of the world where broadband penetration is still rapidly growing, subscribers still have a large reliance on bulk data services like P2P Filesharing and News Groups – classes of application that are relatively insensitive to network quality inconsistencies.

Second, we’ve seen the continued growth of Storage and Back-Up services including one-click download sites like Rapidshare and MegaUpload.  The report didn’t come out and say it, but the elephant in the room is that one-click download services are essentially peer-to-peer filesharing networks without the peers.  Rapidshare and MegaUpload have risen to such popularity based on offering a simple experience and high download speeds of movies, TV shows, software packages, and other content previously primarily sourced on the P2P networks.  Now what we see are the uber-users filling out their content libraries from these services before that content eventually filters down to the P2P networks.  True online back-up (meaning, backing up your hard drive on a network resource) will continue to grow as broadband speeds and usage limits rise, but the category for now is dominated by one-click downloads and I would argue that the use cases are so vastly different that we should explore splitting the two for future studies.

Much has been made of the so-called “death of P2P”, but the reality is not quite so sensational.  It is true, and widely known, that P2P filesharing has experienced a significant decline as a relative percentage of total global Internet traffic.  Of course, like most things, the extent to which P2P has declined (or not) varies from region to region.  In North America, downstream P2P has declined from 20% of total bytes a year ago to less than 16% this year, for a 20% relative decline.  However, in Caribbean and Latin America, P2P actually increased as a share of bandwidth by more than 30% in the downstream and more than 40% in the upstream.  Again, we see that the network itself exerts significant influence on which applications win out in the tough but fair court of public opinion.  And keep in mind that we’re talking in terms of relative share – in absolute terms P2P is alive and well.  Remember, if total traffic grows absolutely by about the same amount that P2P shrinks relatively, then in absolute terms P2P remained constant.  Examining Caribbean and Latin America shows another interesting truth about the global Internet – it is very much influenced by local offerings.  Similarly to the examples of Hulu and iPlayer above, Ares is neck-and-neck with BitTorrent in the battle for P2P supremacy in CALA owing to Spanish language Ares clients.  Globally, Ares averages less than 1.5% of upstream traffic and less than 0.5% of downstream traffic, but in the Caribbean and Latin America we see a different picture entirely.  In this region, Ares is a monster, making up more than 34% of downstream traffic and almost 9% of upstream traffic. Learn more by downloading the executive summary.